research of seth j. hill

book

• Hill, Seth J. 2022. Frustrated Majorities: How Issue Intensity Enables Smaller Groups Of Voters To Get What They Want. Cambridge University Press. Political Economy of Institutions and Decisions series.



work in progress

• Lockhart, Mac and Seth J. Hill. "How Do General Election Incentives Affect the Visible and Invisible Primary?"Invited to revise and resubmit. [ Abstract. | Local link to paper. ]



published work by theme

Partisanship and polarization

• Fowler, Anthony, Seth J. Hill, Jeffrey B. Lewis, Chris Tausanovitch, Lynn Vavreck, and Christopher Warshaw. 2022. "Moderates."
  American Political Science Review Published online by Cambridge University Press: 5 September 2022. [ Abstract. | Link to paper. | Replication archive. ]


• Hill, Seth J. 2022. "Sidestepping Primary Reform: Political Action in Response to Institutional Change."
  Political Science Research and Methods 10 (2): pp 391-407, Published online by Cambridge University Press: 27 October 2020. [ Abstract. | Link to paper. | Local link to paper. | Replication archive. ]


• Hill, Seth J. and Gregory A. Huber. 2019. "On The Meaning of Survey Reports of Roll Call `Votes'."
  American Journal of Political Science 63 (3): pp 611-625. [ Abstract. | Link to paper. | Local link to paper. | Online appendix. | Replication archive. ]


• Hill, Seth J. and Chris Tausanovitch. 2018. "Southern Realignment, Party Sorting, and the Polarization of American Primary Electorates, 1958-2012."
  Public Choice (special issue in honor of Keith Poole) 176 (1-2): pp 107-132. [ Abstract. | Link to paper. | Local link to paper. ]


• Hill, Seth J. 2017. "Learning Together Slowly: Bayesian Learning About Political Facts."
  Journal of Politics 79 (4): pp 1403-1418. [ Abstract. | Link to paper. | Local link to paper. | Online appendix. ]


• Bullock, John G., Alan S. Gerber, Seth J. Hill, and Gregory A. Huber. 2015. "Partisan Bias in Factual Beliefs About Politics."
  Quarterly Journal of Political Science 10 (4): pp 519-578. [ Abstract. | Link to paper. | Local link to paper. | Replication archive. ]


• Hill, Seth J. 2015. "Institution of Nomination and the Policy Ideology of Primary Electorates."
  Quarterly Journal of Political Science 10 (4): pp 461-487. [ Abstract. | Link to paper. | Local link to paper. | Replication archive. ]


• Hill, Seth J. and Chris Tausanovitch. 2015. "A Disconnect in Representation? Comparison of Trends in Congressional and Public Polarization."
  Journal of Politics 77 (4): pp 1058-1075. [ Abstract. | Link to paper. | Local link to paper. | Online appendix. | Replication archive. ]



Candidate choice

• Hill, Seth J. 2022. "A Theory of Intensity, Electoral Competition, and Costly Political Action."
  Journal of Politics 84 (1): pp 291-303. [ Abstract. | Link to paper. | Local link to paper. ]


• Hill, Seth J., Daniel J. Hopkins, and Gregory A. Huber. 2021. "Not by Turnout Alone: Measuring the Sources of Electoral Change, 2012 to 2016."
  Science Advances 7 (17): eabe3272. [ Abstract. | Link to paper. | Online appendix. | Replication archive. ]


• Coppock, Alexander, Seth J. Hill, and Lynn Vavreck. 2020. "The Small Effects of Political Advertising are Small Regardless of Context, Message, Sender, or Receiver: Evidence from 59 Real-time Randomized Experiments."
  Science Advances 6 (36): eabc4046. [ Abstract. | Link to paper. | Replication archive. ]


• Hill, Seth J., Daniel J. Hopkins, and Gregory A. Huber. 2019. "Demographic Change, Threat, and Presidential Voting: Evidence from U.S. Electoral Precincts, 2012 to 2016."
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116 (50): pp 25023-25028. Co-winner APSA Migration and Citizenship Best Article Prize, 2020. [ Abstract. | Link to paper. | Replication archive. ]


• Hill, Seth J., James Lo, Lynn Vavreck, and John Zaller. 2013. "How Quickly We Forget: The Duration Of Persuasion Effects From Mass Communication."
  Political Communication 30 (4): pp 521-547. [ Abstract. | Link to paper. ]


• Bafumi, Joseph, Michael C. Herron, Seth J. Hill, and Jeffrey B. Lewis. 2012. "Alvin Greene? Who? How did he win the United States Senate Nomination in South Carolina?"
  Election Law Journal 11 (4): pp 358-379. [ Abstract. | Link to paper. ]


• Huber, Gregory A., Seth J. Hill, and Gabriel S. Lenz. 2012. "Sources of Bias in Retrospective Decision Making: Experimental Evidence on Voters' Limitations in Controlling Incumbents."
  American Political Science Review 106 (4): pp 720-741. [ Abstract. | Link to paper. ]


• Chang, Eric C. C., Miriam A. Golden, and Seth J. Hill. 2010. "Legislative Malfeasance and Political Accountability."
  World Politics 62 (2): pp 177-220. [ Abstract. | Link to paper. | Local link to paper. ]


• Hill, Seth J., Michael C. Herron, and Jeffrey B. Lewis. 2010. "Economic Crisis, Iraq, and Race: A Study of the 2008 Presidential Election."
  Election Law Journal 9 (1): pp 41-62. [ Abstract. | Link to paper. ]


• Atkinson, Matthew D., Ryan D. Enos, and Seth J. Hill. 2009. "Candidate Faces and Election Outcomes: Is the Face--Vote Correlation Caused by Candidate Selection?"
  Quarterly Journal of Political Science 4 (3): pp 229-249. [ Abstract. | Link to paper. | Local link to paper. ]



Participation

• Biggers, Daniel R., Elizabeth Mitchell Elder, Seth J. Hill, Thad Kousser, Gabriel S. Lenz, Mac Lockhart. 2022. "Can Addressing Integrity Concerns about Mail Balloting Increase Turnout? Results from a Large-Scale Field Experiment in the 2020 Presidential Election."
  Journal of Experimental Political Science Published online by Cambridge University Press: 24 November 2022. [ Abstract. | Link to paper. ]


• Kousser, Thad, Seth J. Hill, Mac Lockhart, Jennifer Merolla, and Mindy Romero. 2021. "How do Americans Want Elections to be Run During the COVID-19 Crisis?"
  Research and Politics. [ Abstract. | Link to paper. ]


• Hill, Seth J. 2020. "Following Through on an Intention to Vote: Present Bias and Turnout"
  Political Science Research and Methods 8 (4): pp 803-810, Published online by Cambridge University Press: 22 November 2018. [ Abstract. | Link to paper. | Local link to paper. | Online appendix. | Replication archive. ]


• Hill, Seth J., Thad Kousser, Gabriel Lenz, Mackenzie Lockhart, and Elizabeth Mitchell. 2020. "How Can We Increase Turnout among Low Propensity Voters?"
  The California Journal of Politics and Policy 12 (1). [ Abstract. | Link to paper. ]


• Lockhart, Mac, Seth J. Hill, Jennifer Merolla, Mindy Romero, and Thad Kousser. 2020. "America's Electorate is Increasingly Polarized Along Partisan Lines About Voting by Mail During the COVID-19 Crisis"
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117 (40): pp 24640-24642. [ Abstract. | Link to paper. | Local link to paper. | Replication archive. ]


• Gerber, Alan S., Gregory A. Huber, David Doherty, Conor M. Dowling, and Seth J. Hill. 2019. "The Voting Experience and Beliefs about Ballot Secrecy."
  PLOS One. [ Abstract. | Link to paper. | Replication archive. ]


• Hill, Seth J. 2017. "Changing Votes or Changing Voters: How Candidates and Election Context Swing Voters and Mobilize the Base."
  Electoral Studies 48: pp 131-141. [ Abstract. | Link to paper. | Local link to paper. ]


• Hill, Seth J. and Gregory A. Huber. 2017. "Representativeness and Motivations of the Contemporary Donorate: Results from Merged Survey and Administrative Records."
  Political Behavior 39 (1): pp 3-29. [ Abstract. | Link to paper. | Local link to paper. ]


• Hughes, Alex D., Justin Levitt, Seth J. Hill, and Thad Kousser. 2017. "The Impact Of GOTV Depends Upon Campaign Context: A Field Experiment In The 2014 California Primary"
  The California Journal of Politics and Policy 9 (2). [ Abstract. | Link to paper. ]


• Hill, Seth J. and Thad Kousser. 2016. "Turning Out Unlikely Voters? A Field Experiment In The Top-Two Primary."
  Political Behavior 38 (2): pp 413-432. [ Abstract. | Link to paper. | Local link to paper. ]


• Hill, Seth J. 2014. "A Behavioral Measure of the Enthusiasm Gap in American Elections."
  Electoral Studies 36: pp 28-38. [ Abstract. | Link to paper. | Local link to paper. ]


• Gerber, Alan S., Gregory A. Huber, and Seth J. Hill. 2013. "Identifying the Effects of All-Mail Elections on Turnout: Staggered Reform in the Evergreen State."
  Political Science Research and Methods 1 (1): pp 91-116. [ Abstract. | Link to paper. ]


• Gerber, Alan S., Gregory A. Huber, David Doherty, Conor M. Dowling, and Seth J. Hill. 2013. "Do Perceptions of Ballot Secrecy Influence Turnout? Results from a Field Experiment."
  American Journal of Political Science 57 (3): pp 537-551 (NBER Working Paper w17673). [ Abstract. | Link to paper. ]


• Gerber, Alan S., Gregory A. Huber, David Doherty, Conor M. Dowling, and Seth J. Hill. 2013. "Who Wants to Discuss Vote Choices with Others? Polarization in Preferences for Deliberation."
  Public Opinion Quarterly 77 (2): pp 474-496. [ Abstract. | Link to paper. | Local link to paper. ]



Other

• Hill, Seth J. and Margaret E. Roberts. 2023. "Acquiescence Bias Inflates Estimates of Conspiratorial Beliefs and Political Misperceptions."
  Political Analysis In press. [ Abstract. | Local link to paper. ]


• Carlson, Taylor N. and Seth J. Hill. 2021. "Experimental Measurement of Misperception in Political Beliefs."
  Journal of Experimental Political Science 9 (2): pp 241--254. [ Abstract. | Link to paper. | Local link to paper. | Online appendix. | Replication archive. ]


• Fowler, James H., Seth J. Hill, Remy Levin, and Nick Obradovich. 2021. "Stay-at-Home Orders Associate with Subsequent Decreases in COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities in the United States."
  PLOS One. [ Abstract. | Link to paper. | Local link to paper. | Replication archive. ]


• Nemerever, Zoe, Kelly Piazza, and Seth J. Hill. 2021. "Incorporating Gender Politics into Introduction to US Government Curriculum"
  College Teaching Published online: 19 Jul 2021. [ Abstract. | Link to paper. ]



dormant

• Hill, Seth J. "Representation of Primary Electorates in Congressional Roll Call Votes." Working paper.
  [ Abstract. | Local link to paper. ]


• Hill, Seth J., James Lo, Lynn Vavreck, and John Zaller. "The Opt-in Internet Panel: Survey Mode, Sampling Methodology and the Implications for Political Research." Working paper.
  [ Abstract. | Link to paper. ]



(link to list with abstracts)

(link to list sorted by published/working)

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